Debating the Invasion of Iraq
This is a response to
The Volokh Conspiracy -: "Debating the Invasion of Iraq" which asks three questions concerning the war in Iraq.
First, assuming that you were in favor of the invasion of Iraq at the time of the invasion, do you believe today that the invasion of Iraq was a good idea? Why/why not?
Yes, for a number of reasons. One is the one that the administration keeps reiterating, which is that the terrorists are now fighting us in the Sunni triangle in Iraq instead of here in the U.S. Also, it removed the destabilizing effects of Saddam Hussein and his regime. It showed that when the U.S. says it will do something, it does (at least under Bush (43)). Also, by removing our troops from Saudi Arabia, near the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, we have significantly reduced the justification for Jihad, etc. This, in turn was enabled by the ending of the No Fly Zones and removal of Iraq as a military threat to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Finally, it, along with Afghanistan, puts a challenge to militant Islam and the like right in the center of the MiddleEast. If we can turn the countries into true democracies, there will be a lot of pressure for change in our direction in Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia.
Second, what reaction do you have to the not-very-upbeat news coming of Iraq these days, such as the stories I link to above?
Some of the articles cited are not accurate - in particular the article on commondreams that was originally dated June 15. It spends a lot of type discussing al-Sadr, who has become a non-issue.
Currently, to the best of my knowledge, the problem today is almost entirely in the Sunni triangle, and involves primarily Baathists and foreigners who have gone there to fight us. With the deal with al-Sadr, the majority Shiites appear to be willing to try democracy. And the Kurds in the north have been aboard from the first.
Things are bad for two reasons. First, democratic elections are coming up very quickly. The Baathists see how much they have lost since Saddam was deposed. They want us out because they know they won't do as well under democracy as they were doing previously. Secondly, if Kerry wins here, our steadfastness is much less assured. The best way to get us out is to elect Kerry, and the best way for that to happen is if things look really bad right before the election.
But the terrorists causing the problems are in the long run doomed, esp. if we can hold on for another year or two. We are rapidly training up police and other defense forces. When staffing and performance levels are adequate, I see the Iraqi forces moving strongly into the unstable areas and solving the problem. All indications I have seen are that the Iraqis want to solve this problem by themselves.
Third, what specific criteria do you recommend that we should use over the coming months and years to measure whether the Iraq invasion has been a success?
Only a fool or someone who wants us to lose in Iraq can expect a good resolution in the next couple of months. To be realistic, you need to look at this year to year, and not to expect that all of a sudden, in one month, two months, etc., that things will be good. There is a lot of work to be done still, and it is going to take years.
That said, I will consider it an intermediate success if elections go forward this January. Sure, not all of the provinces will be able to vote. But that is their problem. A large majority of provinces appear to be safe enough for elections. I can accept a democratic government based on the votes of the Shiites and the Kurds as a big step in the right direction.
After that, I think you need to look at things a year at a time, and not get bogged down in weekly or monthly fluctuations. A year after those elections, look at violence levels compared with then. Oil shipment levels compared to today. Electrification. Schooling levels. Unemployment.
I should add that if we stay the course, I expect to see revolution in Iran. If that happens, and the current theocracy can be overthrown, I think that alone would be worth the cost.
